Is It Getting Warm In Here, Or Is It Just The Climatologists?

One thing that bothers me is when experts in a field disagree on something. It seems there's no real way for a layman like me to know the truth. Take global warming, for example. The experts can't seem to agree on it.

I think most scientists agree that the climate is warming. The question is one of cause. Are humans to blame, or is the warming due to natural changes and our contribution is merely a drop in the bucket?

A recent report came out that was put together by many scientists saying that we are indeed the cause. But there's still scientists saying we're not. This report was, apparently, pretty convincing. But then they found that global warming isn't localized to Earth. Apparently Mars is getting warmer. This implies it might not be our fault.

So, whom do I believe?

It seems to me that a lot of people, who are not climatologists, are pretty convinced one way or the other. I'm sure if I asked them who I should believe, they would tell me to believe the scientists who tell them what they already believe. If I ask someone who thinks we're causing the global warming, they'll tell me to listen to the scientists who say that it's our fault. If I ask someone who thinks we're not the main cause, then they'll tell me to listen to the scientists who say we're not.

And none of these people will be climatologists. Now, I know who most of my blog readers are, and I don't know of any climatologists reading my blog. If you're a climatologist, if you reply to me telling me what side I should believe, then you'll also have to tell me why I should believe you instead of the climatologists saying the opposite.

Since I claim ignorance, the confirmation bias can't really be applied to me here. One suggestion would be that I read the studies and decide for myself. But that seems like a waste of time. I'm not a climatologist, nor do I wish to go to school for the length of time it would take to become one. So I'll end up wasting my time reading stuff that I don't understand. And they could be pulling the wool over my eyes and I'd have no idea. Same thing if they were practicing bad science, I probably wouldn't be able to tell. In the end I'd still believe what I wanted to believe, or being just as confused as I am now.

(The confirmation bias is when you find evidence to support a belief of yours, and ignore evidence contrary to your belief.)

So, whom do I believe? Since I can't make an educated decision it seems my choice of whom to believe would be arbitrary, doesn't it?

Apparently, It Might Not Be The Tomb of Jesus

I recently posted about the tomb that was found in Jerusalem that Simcha Jacobovici thought to be the tomb of Jesus. I said it probably wasn't, and implied that to think it was Jesus' tomb was to employ some wishful thinking.

Today's article tells of scientists who appeared on the documentary are "backing away" from the claims that it was Jesus' tomb.

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On this note, does anybody know of any historical documents from first century in Palestine that explicitly says there was no persecution of christians?

I'm An Artist Too (12)

Some random guy.

The Law Of Attraction

I've heard about this Law Of Attraction mini-phenomenon. It's the latest craze it seems. It was even suggested we get a copy for our team at work so we could all read it.

Well, I beat them to the punch...sort of. I found a free podcast that explains the Law of Attraction, and how to use it. It works sort of like affirmations. The idea is that things of similar "energy" attract. So, if you think lots of negative thoughts, lots of negative things will happen. If you think positive thoughts, lots of good things will happen to you.

And, apparently this doesn't just work for general things like "positive" and "negative" things, but specifics. The podcast host says she actively thinks positively about getting a good parking spot, and she always gets one. That seems pretty specific to me.

So I want to know if this is really works, or if it's a way for people to notice happy coincidences, and downplay bad things. I've decided to perform my own quasi-scientific experiment to prove the Law of Attraction.

For scientific process, I'll need a hypothesis that I can test. So I will think positively about something that I want, thus creating lots of positive energy that will attract me to my desire.

After much contemplating, I've decided what I want. Here it is: I want to see the Beatles live in concert. All four of them. John, Paul, George, and Ringo. I'm being specific. I don't want to see a tape or other recording or reproduction of them live in concert. I want to see them live in concert.

I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert.

I'll let you know how it turns out.

I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert. I want to see the Beatles live in concert....

Another Reason To Be A Steve Jobs Fanboy

As most of you know, I'm boycotting the RIAA because they're suing customers. (The latest is that they're suing a 10 year old girl who's disabled mother is on Social Security, for file sharing she allegedly did when she was 7. Come on! suing a 10 year old girl!? That's low.)

One of the other things major record companies do is putting DRM (Digital Rights Management) on their music when selling online. I think this is more dumb than it is evil.

What is DRM? It's encoding of a music file to prevent sharing of said file. The encoding takes into account the computer that owns the file. iTunes Music Store, until now, has DRM'd all their music. So if I buy a song from iTunes Music Store, it's encoded and will only play on my computer, my iPod, and up to 4 other computers that I authorize. Oh yeah, and on those computers the song can only be played in iTunes.

The idea behind DRM is that it makes the song impossible to copy so I can't give it to anyone over the internet. But it isn't that simple in reality. First of all, I can burn the song to a CD, then rip ("to rip a CD" means to copy the songs onto your computer into a file format, such as MP3) the song off the CD into MP3 format onto my computer. Then I can share it. Or I can just buy the CD and rip the music off of that.

Right now music bought on services, such as iTunes Music Store, makes up such a small minority that DRM probably doesn't make any difference to "illegal" file sharing. Steve Jobs doesn't seem to think so, anyway.

Today's article explains how iTunes Music Store will start to sell EMI songs, DRM-Free. It's a tiny bit more expensive than DRM'd songs, but it's also at a higher recording bit rate, meaning higher quality.

Both Apple and EMI should be applauded for this. But I find myself in a difficult position. My first instinct is to run home and buy some DRM-free EMI tracks from iTunes Music Store to show them my support for this move. But then I'm still supporting the RIAA. Perhaps I need to do a temporary suspension of my boycott.

I'm An Artist Too (11)

The inspiration for this picture, is of course, You Can't Do That On Television.

He's saying "That really cracks me up."

New Look'N'Feel

Today's post is relatively boring. Okay, it's not just relatively boring, it's really boring. At least it's short.

I got a new lookn'n'feel for the blog. It's neat. I can add news feeds, and other widgets if I so desire. Chances are, I don't so desire. But if I wanted to....

Anyway, see ya Wednesday for some more Coffee Cup Art.